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Man City vs Arsenal

Sat 30 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 23 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Man City win: 36.1%

Draw: 30.0%

Arsenal win: 33.9%

Predicted: Man City

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 65.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 69.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.73

More corners: Arsenal (47.1% home / 52.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Arsenal

Yes

Probability Arsenal wins or draws: 79.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (36.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (65.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (70.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Arsenal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (79.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.